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Ryuichi Kawamoto1,2, Asuka Kikuchi1,2, Daisuke Ninomiya1,2
1Department of Community Medicine, Ehime University Graduate School of Medicine, Toon, Japan.
布林克曼指数 (BI) 有效地预测吸烟者的死亡风险. 前吸烟者BI> 800和现在吸烟者BI ≥ 400都面临着显著增加的过早死亡风险.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 吸烟状态是与衰老相关的健康结果和死亡率的重要预测因素.
- 这项研究考察了吸烟状态和生存率之间的长期关系.
- 布林克曼指数 (BI) 量化了吸烟史.
研究的目的:
- 通过布林克曼指数 (BI) 量化的吸烟状况与长期生存结果之间的关联.
- 为了确定BI对死亡风险的预测截止值.
- 为戒烟和控制策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 一组3526名参与者 (平均年龄64±12岁) 被跟踪了长达21年的时间.
- 使用布林克曼指数 (BI) 评估吸烟状况,将参与者分为非吸烟者,前吸烟者和目前吸烟者.
- 考克斯回归分析,以年龄为时间变量,用于分析全因死亡率,调整风险因素.
主要成果:
- 在随访期间,1111名参与者 (49.2%) 死亡.
- 与从未吸烟者相比,前吸烟者BI > 800 (OR 1.51) 和目前吸烟者BI 400-799 (OR 1.61) 或BI ≥ 800 (OR 1.62) 的全因死亡率显著更高.
- 在排除过早死亡以减轻反向因果关系后,结果仍然一致.
结论:
- 布林克曼指数 (BI) 是对未来死亡风险的验证预测指标.
- 对于前吸烟者来说,BI的切线值为800,对于目前吸烟者来说是400,对于风险评估是有用的.
- 戒烟干预措施应针对现有和前吸烟者,以减少过早死亡率.
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