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发展一个新型的胸腔外科医生协会 动脉外科 死亡率和发病率风险模型
Nimesh D Desai1, Andrew Vekstein2, Maria Grau-Sepulveda3
1Division of Cardiovascular Surgery, Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Penn Cardiovascular Outcomes, Quality, and Evaluative Research Center, Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
The Annals of thoracic surgery
|October 4, 2024
概括
来自胸腔外科医生协会成人心脏手术数据库 (STS ACSD) 的新风险模型预测了上升大动脉动脉瘤修复的死亡率和发病率. 该模型确定了更好和更糟糕的患者结果的关键预测因素.
科学领域:
- 心血管外科心血管外科
- 胸前主动脉手术 胸前主动脉手术
- 健康 结果 研究 研究 结果
背景情况:
- 胸腔外科医生协会成人心脏手术数据库 (STS ACSD) 现在包括详细的胸腔大动脉手术数据.
- 这项研究引入了使用STS ACSD数据进行胸前大动脉手术的第一个验证的风险模型.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种风险模型,用于预测正在进行上升大动脉动脉瘤修复的患者的手术死亡率和重大发病率.
- 在这个患者群体中确定与不良结果相关的预测因素.
主要方法:
- 利用了从24,051名患者的数据,这些患者在2017年至2021年期间接受了非突发性孤立上升性大动脉动脉瘤修复.
- 包括开放或紧的远端解剖,有或没有大动脉根/门置换.
- 对手术死亡率,30天主要发病率和复合结果进行评估模型歧视和校准.
主要成果:
- 术后死亡率为1.9%,12.2%的人患有重症,包括2.4%的中风发病率.
- 该模型显示出良好的歧视 (C统计:0.74的死亡率,0.67的发病率/复合).
- 之前的中风和循环停止与中风风险增加有关;遗传性动脉动脉损伤与较低的死亡率有关.
结论:
- 一个新的STS ACSD风险模型有效地预测了上升大动脉动脉瘤手术后的死亡率和发病率.
- 已经确定了改善和恶化结果的关键预测因素,有助于临床决策.
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