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Published on: March 31, 2023
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高山亚洲地区的加速变暖预计将在未来多年内发生
Shuai Hu1, Tianjun Zhou2, Bo Wu1
1Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China.
Science bulletin
|October 4, 2024
概括
高山地区亚洲 高山地区亚洲
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 冰川学的冰川学
- 水文学的水文学
背景情况:
- 高山亚洲 (HMA) 是一个重要的淡水来源,供应10条河流,支持超过20亿人.
- 自20世纪50年代以来的全球变暖加速了冰川融化,威胁到区域的水源安全.
- 预测近期的温度变化和冰川质量损失至关重要,但由于内部气候变化而复杂.
研究的目的:
- 调查亚洲高山地区内部气候变化的可预测性.
- 为HMA的温度和冰川质量提供十年气候预测.
- 评估加速变暖对HMA水资源的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了大量的最先进的十年气候预测实验.
- 在HMA.中分析了内部生成的表面空气温度变化.
- 研究了热带以外的太平洋十年变化模式和大气凯尔文波的作用.
主要成果:
- 在HMA的内部气候变化是可以提前几年预测的,模型初始化增加了重要的技能.
- 预计HMA在2025-2032年间将经历0.98°C的加速变暖,比2016-2023年快1.75倍.
- 预计HMA中的冰川体积将由于这种加速变暖而进一步缩小1.4%.
结论:
- 对HMA的十年气候预测是可行的,对水资源管理至关重要.
- 加速变暖带来了重大风险,包括水资源短缺,生态系统破坏和自然灾害的增加.
- 积极的适应策略对于减轻HMA不断变化的冰层影响至关重要.
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