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在中美洲和南美洲使用高分辨率区域气候模拟来预测热浪的变化
M V S Ramarao1,2, Saravanan Arunachalam3, Brisa N Sánchez4
1Institute for the Environment, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, 27516, USA.
Scientific reports
|October 4, 2024
概括
拉丁美洲未来的热浪将更频繁,更长时间,更强烈. 减少排放可以显著降低人口对这些极端高温事件的暴露.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 极端天气事件 极端天气事件
背景情况:
- 热浪对全球人类和生态系统构成重大威胁.
- 了解未来的热浪趋势对于有效的气候变化适应和减缓战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在不同的排放场景下,在拉丁美洲各地预测热浪特征的变化.
- 量化气候变化对该地区人口暴露在热浪中的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用偏差纠正的高分辨率区域气候模拟.
- 分析了两个代表性度路径 (RCP) 场景下的预测:RCP2.6 (低排放) 和RCP8.5 (高排放).
主要成果:
- 预计到本世纪中叶,热浪的频率,持续时间和强度都将在RCP2.6和RCP8.5.2下增加.
- 预计人口暴露于热浪日的数量将大幅增加,特别是在中美洲和南美洲.
- 即使是较低的RCP2.6场景也显示,该地区大部分地区的热浪频率翻了一番.
结论:
- 气候变化是增加热浪暴露的主要驱动因素.
- 坚持低排放路径 (RCP2.6) 可以在中美洲减少57%的热浪暴露,在南美洲减少50%.
- 迫切需要对人为排放进行控制,并实施可持续实践,以减轻热浪的影响.
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