开发和验证用于预测经过胸部手术的老年患者肺部并发症的诺米克图
Jingjing Liu1,2,3,4, Dinghao Xue2, Long Wang5
1Department of Anesthesiology, The First Medical Center, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, 100853, China.
Aging clinical and experimental research
|October 5, 2024
概括
这项研究开发了一种名谱,用于预测经过胸部手术的老年患者的术后肺并发症 (PPC). 该工具准确地识别高风险个体,帮助及时进行预防性干预,以获得更好的患者结果.
科学领域:
- 胸部外科手术 胸部外科手术
- 肺部医学 肺部医学
- 老年医学 老年医学
背景情况:
- 手术后的肺部并发症 (PPC) 是老年手术患者的一个重大问题.
- 接受胸部手术的老年患者面临更高的PPC发病率.
- 在这个人口群体中,PPC的预测工具至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证用于预测经过胸部手术的老年患者PPC风险的诺米克图.
- 在这个特定的患者群体中确定与PPC相关的关键风险因素.
主要方法:
- 一组2963名接受胸部手术的老年患者被分为训练 (80%) 和验证 (20%) 组.
- 后勤回归分析确定了PPC的独立风险因素.
- 使用ROC曲线,AUC,校准和决策曲线分析 (DCA) 构建和验证了一个名图.
主要成果:
- 确定了9个PPC的独立风险因素,包括COPD,高白细胞计数,高的PaCO2,手术地点,胸切除术,低血压,失血,手术持续时间和恶性瘤.
- 在训练队列中,nomogram的AUC达到0.739,在验证队列中达到0.703.
- 诺米图表显示了良好的校准和临床实用性,跨越了一系列风险值.
结论:
- 开发的诺米图表显示,在老年胸部手术患者中,PPCs具有有希望的预测效果.
- 早期识别高风险患者对于实施有针对性的预防策略至关重要.
- 该工具可以帮助临床医生管理PPC风险并改善患者护理.
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