欧洲的异常热浪和死亡率:自2019年新冠肺炎疫情爆发以来,影响更大
Zhiwei Li1, Yinguang Fan1, Zhiwei Xu2
1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230000, China; Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Major Autoimmune Disease, Hefei, 230000, China.
Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)
|October 6, 2024
概括
特殊的热浪显著增加了欧洲的死亡率,自COVID-19爆发以来,这一负担增加了一倍多. 这凸显了在气候变化中迫切需要综合热健康战略.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 气候变化流行病学 气候变化流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 创纪录的热浪是一个日益增长的全球健康威胁.
- 极端高温对欧洲死亡率的影响,特别是COVID-19后的影响,仍未得到充分研究.
- 气候变化和流行病同时给医疗保健系统和人类健康带来压力.
研究的目的:
- 量化欧洲异常热浪的死亡负担.
- 为了比较COVID-19爆发之前和之后的热浪死亡率影响.
- 为了确定热浪相关死亡风险的区域差异.
主要方法:
- 通过欧盟统计局利用了来自30个欧洲国家的967个地区 (2014-2023) 的死亡数据.
- 采用时间序列分析与准波松回归来评估热浪强度和持续时间的影响.
- 应用随机效应的元分析,将国家和欧洲范围的死亡风险 (相对风险) 和负担 (归因部分) 结合起来.
主要成果:
- 由于热浪的强度和持续时间的影响,欧洲整体死亡负担在COVID-19后显著增加.
- 主要影响的归因死亡负担从0.492%上升到1.276%;附加影响的归因死亡负担从0.307%上升到0.428%.
- 观察到跨国差异很大,法国和西班牙的死亡负担明显增加.
结论:
- 异常的热浪在欧洲构成日益升级的死亡风险,自COVID-19大流行以来恶化.
- 紧急实施全面的热健康行动计划至关重要.
- 未来的战略必须解决气候变化和公共卫生危机对死亡率的综合影响.
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