相关实验视频
Updated: Jun 11, 2025

06:10
Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
Published on: March 31, 2023
902
气候损害预测超出每年温度的范围
Paul Waidelich1, Fulden Batibeniz2,3,4, James Rising5
1Climate Finance and Policy Group, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
概括
气候变化对全球经济产生重大影响,预计在+3°C时,损失将达到GDP的10%. 较贫穷的低度国家面临最严重的经济后果,突出需要全面的气候风险评估.
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 环境经济学环境经济学
背景情况:
- 目前对气候变化造成的经济损害的估计主要集中在年度温度变化上.
- 降水,温度变化和极端天气事件的具体经济影响在很大程度上仍未得到量化.
研究的目的:
- 量化气候变化对全球经济造成的损害,包括降雨,温度变化和极端事件.
- 评估全球不同地区的经济影响差异,特别是低度国家.
主要方法:
- 结合气候模型预测与经验剂量反应函数.
- 将平均温度的变化,变化,降雨模式和极端降水转化为经济损害估计.
主要成果:
- 在+3°C升温的情况下,全球平均经济损失估计为GDP的10%.
- 预计较贫穷的低度国家将经历最严重的经济影响,损失高达GDP的17%.
- 将变化和极端纳入经济模型将全球损失增加近2个百分点,并增加经济尾部风险.
结论:
- 气候变化对经济损害的影响比以前估计的要复杂得多,变化和极端因素发挥着重要作用.
- 具体区域的风险评估对于了解和减轻气候变化的经济后果至关重要.
- 整合不同气候变量超出平均温度是准确的经济影响评估必不可少的.
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