对选择性应用贝叶斯因子的一个警告
Marcel R Schreiner1, Wilfried Kunde1
1Department of Psychology, Julius-Maximilians-Universitat Wurzburg.
Journal of experimental psychology. General
|October 7, 2024
概括
在频率测试后选择性地使用贝叶斯分析可以高估虚假假说的证据. 这种方法结合了频率主义和贝叶斯方法,在存在真实效应时引入了偏差,建议一致使用任何方法.
科学领域:
- 统计 统计 统计 统计
- 心理学研究方法 心理学研究方法
背景情况:
- 贝叶斯因子分析因其支持零假设的能力而越来越受欢迎,与传统的频率主义方法不同.
- 一个常见的策略是首先使用频率分析,然后对理论上有趣的零效应进行贝叶斯分析.
研究的目的:
- 调查选择性地将贝叶斯分析应用于非显著的频率主义结果是否引入了偏见.
- 评估这种综合分析策略对零假设证据的影响.
主要方法:
- 为了检查拟议的分析方法,进行了两项模拟研究.
- 模拟集中在真实人口效应存在的场景上.
主要成果:
- 贝叶斯分析的选择性应用严重高估了有利于虚假假设的证据,当真实的人口效应存在时.
- 在贝叶斯分析中使用更有信息的先验可以减轻这种偏差.
结论:
- 选择性地结合频率主义和贝叶斯分析的做法不建议,因为引入了偏见.
- 研究人员应该始终采用频率主义或贝叶斯分析来获得可靠和公正的结果.
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