夏季极端温度变化的速度
Karen A McKinnon1,2,3, Isla R Simpson4, A Park Williams5
1Department of Statistics and Data Science, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095.
概括
全球夏季极端高温正以与平均气温相同的速度升温,这与一些预测相反. 然而,寒冷极端的变暖速度较慢,增加了整个夏季的温度变化.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 全球环境变化 全球环境变化
背景情况:
- 全球气温上升和极端高温的频率增加是气候变化的关键指标.
- 之前的研究提出了与平均温度相比,夏季极端高温加快变暖的机制.
- 实际观察到的极端热和极端冷的趋势需要详细的研究.
研究的目的:
- 为了调查夏季极端高温是否比夏季平均温度更快地升温.
- 分析炎热和寒冷夏季极端温度的变暖趋势.
- 了解驱动温度极端观察到的变化的潜在机制.
主要方法:
- 从1959年到2023年观察数据的分析.
- 评价历史气候模型模拟从合模型相互比较项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 的评估.
- 应用表面能量平衡原理来解释观察到的趋势.
主要成果:
- 观测到的最热的夏天的变暖速度与全球平均水平相同,在每个半球和热带地区.
- 观察到的最寒冷的夏日比全球中位数变暖得更慢,这表明温度变化增加.
- CMIP6模型没有模拟观察到的寒冷极端变暖速度较慢.
- 未来的预测 (SSP3-7.0情景) 表明正在出现的热带热天放大.
结论:
- 由于寒冷极端的变暖速度较慢,而不是热极端的变暖速度更快,观察到的夏季温度变化增加了.
- 表面能量平衡的变化,包括净表面辐射和蒸发分数,解释了观察到的趋势.
- 预计未来的气候变化将导致热带地区的炎热天气放大,但不一定在北半球.
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