在二十一世纪,激进地延长人类生命的不可思议性
S Jay Olshansky1, Bradley J Willcox2, Lloyd Demetrius3
1University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA. sjayo@uic.edu.
Nature aging
|October 7, 2024
概括
人类预期寿命的增长在本世纪已经放缓. 寿命不平等的下降和死亡率的压缩表明,在没有减缓生物衰老的情况下,极端延长寿命不太可能.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 老年学是一门学科.
背景情况:
- 20世纪高收入国家由于公共卫生和医学进步,预期寿命显著增加 (~30年).
- 死亡率的降低最初发生在较年轻的年龄段,逐渐发展到较年长的年龄组.
- 关于这些预期寿命增长的延续到21世纪,存在不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 调查1990年至2019年死亡率和预期寿命的最新趋势.
- 分析长寿人口和关键国家的人口生存指标.
- 评估21世纪激进的人类寿命延长的可信性.
主要方法:
- 利用人口统计学生存指标.
- 分析了国家重要统计数据.
- 包括八个拥有最长寿人口的国家 (澳大利亚,法国,意大利,日本,韩国,西班牙,瑞典,瑞士) 以及香港和美国.
主要成果:
- 自1990年以来,预期寿命的提高已经放缓.
- 对预期寿命改善的抵抗力有所增加.
- 寿命不平等性下降,死亡率出现压缩.
结论:
- 预计女性的百岁生存率将保持在15%以下,男性的5%以下.
- 激进的人类寿命延长在本世纪似乎是不可思议的.
- 减缓生物衰老过程是显著延长寿命的必要条件.
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