根据基于优化的MaxEnt模型的当前和未来气候场景,可能适合Colletotrichum acutatum的地理区域
Chun Fu1, Yaqin Peng2, Fengrong Yang2
1Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province for Bamboo Pests Control and Resource Development, Leshan Normal University, Leshan, China.
Frontiers in microbiology
|October 8, 2024
概括
全球变暖正在改变真菌息地. 这项研究预测,由于气候变化,中国的适合Colletotrichum acutatum (炭) 的地区增加,有助于疾病管理.
科学领域:
- 菌类学和植物病理学
- 气候变化 生态学 生态学
- 生物地理和分布建模
背景情况:
- 全球气候变暖显著影响真菌息地和物种分布.
- 造成人类病的真菌Colletotrichum acutatum在中国南部普遍存在,但其对气候变暖的反应需要进一步调查.
研究的目的:
- 在环境变暖下预测Colletotrichum acutatum当前和未来的适合息地.
- 确定影响C. acutatum.分布的关键环境因素.
- 为监测和控制C. acutatum在中国的传播提供风险评估和指导.
主要方法:
- 使用MaxEnt和ArcGIS软件进行生态利基模型.
- 使用发生记录和环境因素来预测合适的息地.
- 优化了MaxEnt模型参数,其特征组合 (FC) = lp和规则化乘数 (RM) = 2.6.
主要成果:
- 确定了Bio15,Bio12,Bio09和Bio19作为C. acutatum分布的关键环境驱动因素.
- 目前适合C. acutatum的息地遍及全球 (不包括南极洲),主要分布在中国的林 - 华合线以南 (259.52 × 10^4 km^2).
- 预计未来的气候条件将增加适合息地面积,并促进中国内陆的扩散.
结论:
- 气候变暖正在扩大Collettotrichum acutatum在中国的潜在分布.
- 这项研究提供了对及时风险评估和管理策略的关键数据,以应对人类鼻病.
- 这些发现支持针对扩大分布区的有针对性的监测和控制工作的科学指导.
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