在视线之外,但仍然在脑海中:通过在当代风险评估框架中正式化无知来培养对惊喜的期望
James Derbyshire1, Terje Aven2
1Chester Business School, University of Chester, Chester, UK.
概括
风险评估往往无法预测极端事件,因为它们忽视了"不知道". 这项研究建议将未知纳入风险评估框架,以便更好地为意外危机做好准备.
科学领域:
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 应对危机的准备 应对危机的准备
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
背景情况:
- 流行病和金融危机等极端事件经常出乎意料地发生,尽管存在潜在的警告信号.
- 传统的风险评估侧重于已知的因素,忽视了固有的不确定性和未知的未知因素,这些因素会带来惊喜.
- 这种监督使组织和社会容易受到不可预见的灾难性事件的影响.
研究的目的:
- 解决当前风险评估方法在预测不可预见事件方面的局限性.
- 引入和正式化"不知"的概念,作为风险评估的关键组成部分.
- 通过明确考虑未知因素,提高风险评估框架的弹性.
主要方法:
- 审查和分析现有的风险评估框架.
- 在风险的背景下",不知"的概念化和定义.
- 开发一个修改后的风险评估框架,将"不知"作为一个独特的元素.
主要成果:
- 确定了"不知"在意外极端事件发生中的关键作用.
- 证明,只关注已知的风险使得评估容易发生意外.
- 提出了将"不知"纳入风险评估过程的正式方法.
结论:
- 在风险评估框架中明确包括"未知"对于预测和减轻意外事件至关重要.
- 对风险的全面理解必须包括已知的因素和未知的范围.
- 这种方法可以带来更强大,更有效的危机准备和风险管理策略.
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