在中国的碳峰值目标下,环境监管政策的选择:能源供应政策还是碳税政策?
1Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai, 200093, China.
Heliyon
|October 9, 2024
概括
中国的2030年碳峰值目标需要有效的环境政策. 将煤炭消费限制与非化石能源发展相结合,对减排和经济增长最有效.
科学领域:
- 环境政策分析 环境政策分析
- 经济建模经济建模
- 能源经济学 能源经济学
背景情况:
- 中国的目标是到2030年达到碳排放峰值.
- 正在考虑环境法规,包括能源供应政策和碳税.
- 有效的政策模拟对于实现气候目标至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 模拟中国拟议的环境政策对经济和排放的影响.
- 评估碳税和能源供应政策的充分性,单独和组合.
- 确定中国2030年碳峰值目标的最佳政策途径.
主要方法:
- 使用可计算的一般平衡 (CGE) 模型进行政策模拟.
- 分析了煤炭消费限制的影响.
- 评估了非化石能源发展的影响.
- 模拟了碳税政策的影响.
主要成果:
- 仅碳税政策就限制了经济影响和减排.
- 煤炭消费限制减少了排放,但阻碍了经济增长.
- 非化石能源的发展支持经济增长,但没有足够的减排.
- 同时限制煤炭和非化石能源发展政策实现碳峰值目标,缩小能源差距,减少经济压力.
结论:
- 煤炭消费限制和非化石能源发展的结合是实现中国2030年碳峰值目标的最有效策略.
- 当碳税政策与能源供应政策一起实施时,其有效性会显著下降.
- 这些发现表明,鉴于当前的政策考虑,中国实施碳税的可能性很低.
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