韩国在COVID-19大流行期间的过度死亡:2020-2022年
So-Jin Im1,2, Ji-Yeon Shin3, Duk-Hee Lee3
1Department of Health and Medical Policy, Daegu City Hall, Daegu, Korea.
概括
在韩国COVID-19大流行期间估计过多的死亡人数显示了方法的显著差异. 经年龄调整的线性回归模型表明,到2022年,过度死亡率会大幅增加,特别是在年轻人中.
科学领域:
- 流行病学和公共卫生.
- 生物统计和人口统计学
背景情况:
- 过度死亡提供了一种全面衡量大流行对死亡率的影响的方法.
- 根据所采用的方法,估计预期死亡人数可能会有很大差异.
- 准确评估过度死亡率对于在流行病期间有效的公共卫生反应至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 用三种不同的方法比较韩国COVID-19大流行期间的过度死亡估计.
- 确定计算过剩死亡的最合适方法,考虑到人口动态.
- 根据年龄,性别和死亡原因分析过度死亡率的模式.
主要方法:
- 2015-2019年的死亡率数据作为估计预期死亡人数 (2020-2022) 的参考期.
- 使用了三种估计方法:简单平均值,年龄调整平均值和年龄调整线性回归.
- 分析了人口群体 (年龄,性别) 和特定死亡原因的过度死亡.
主要成果:
- 估计方法的选择显著影响了过剩的死亡人数,简单的平均值是最高的,年龄调整后的平均值是最低的.
- 根据年龄调整的线性回归,考虑到人口老龄化和死亡率下降趋势,被认为是最合适的方法.
- 使用这种方法,过度死亡率为0.3% (2020年),4.0% (2021年) 和20.7% (2022年),年轻人 (自我伤害/自杀) 和代谢疾病和未指明原因的死亡人数显著增加.
结论:
- 方法选择极大地影响过度死亡计算,突出了对标准化方法的需求.
- 2022年发生过多死亡人数的大幅增加,要求在疫情防控方面给予重视.
- 年轻成年人和特定疾病类别的死亡率增加,需要针对性的公共卫生干预措施和未来的流行病规划.
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