全球645个地区的降雨事件和每日死亡率:两阶段时间序列分析
Cheng He1, Susanne Breitner-Busch2,3, Veronika Huber2,3
1Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany cheng.he@helmholtz-munich.de.
BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
|October 9, 2024
概括
极端降雨事件显著增加了所有原因,心血管和呼吸系统问题的日常死亡风险. 适度降雨可能提供保护作用,风险因气候和植被而异.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 气候科学是气候科学.
背景情况:
- 每日降雨特征越来越被认为是影响公共健康的环境因素.
- 了解降雨强度,持续时间,频率和死亡率之间的特定关联对于公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查每日降雨模式 (强度,持续时间,频率) 与全球所有原因,心血管和呼吸道死亡率之间的关系.
- 量化与不同回归周期的极端降雨事件相关的死亡风险.
主要方法:
- 采用两阶段时间序列分析,使用来自34个国家的645个地点 (1980-2020) 的每日死亡率数据.
- 降雨事件按回归期 (1,2,5年) 分类,并使用连续相对强度指数生成强度-响应曲线.
- 考虑14天的滞后期来评估累积死亡风险.
主要成果:
- 极端降雨事件 (5年回归期) 与所有原因 (RR 1.08),心血管 (RR 1.05) 和呼吸道 (RR 1.29) 死亡率的增加显著相关.
- 中等到大雨显示出保护作用 (RR <1),而极端强度增加死亡风险 (RR >1).
- 关联因气候类型,基线降雨变化和植被覆盖率而改变,降雨变化较低或植被稀缺的地区风险更高.
结论:
- 每日降雨强度,特别是极端事件,对公共健康构成重大风险,增加各种原因的死亡率.
- 降雨对健康的影响是复杂的,观察到的非线性影响,受当地环境和气候条件的影响.
- 这些发现凸显了需要制定适应气候变化的公共卫生战略,考虑降雨模式对死亡率的影响.
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