相关实验视频
Updated: Jun 11, 2025

06:27
Simulating Impacts of Ice Storms on Forest Ecosystems
Published on: June 30, 2020
6.9K
使用高分辨率灾难和经济模拟对灾后经济进行分析
Amit Gill1,2, Maddegedara Lalith2, Muneo Hori3
1R&D Center, Sumitomo Mitsui Construction Co., Ltd., Chiba, Japan.
概括
本研究引入了一个综合框架,用于模拟基于物理的灾害和基于代理的经济模型 (ABEM) 的灾难经济影响. 该框架估计了基础设施维修成本,并模拟了灾后经济复苏,预计工业生产将在三个季度内恢复.
科学领域:
- 灾难经济学的经济学
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
- 风险评估 风险评估 风险评估
背景情况:
- 准确估计灾难经济影响对于有效的恢复计划至关重要.
- 现有的模型往往缺乏物理灾害模拟和经济影响之间的整合.
- 模拟大规模经济需要高性能计算能力.
研究的目的:
- 提出一个综合框架来估计灾害的经济影响.
- 通过基于代理的经济模型 (ABEM) 在1:1规模上模拟国家经济.
- 评估南开峡地震情景对日本经济的经济后果.
主要方法:
- 使用一个由三个组成部分组成的框架:基于物理的灾难模拟器,基础设施损失估计工具和基于代理的经济模型 (ABEM).
- 在大规模模拟的高性能计算环境中实现ABEM.
- 使用宏观经济数据对日本经济进行ABEM的校准和验证.
主要成果:
- 模拟了大阪湾地区180万座建筑物的地震反应.
- 估计的基础设施维修成本约为15万亿日元,用于南开谷地震.
- 根据两个复苏情景,预计工业生产将在三季度内恢复,并在10-13季度完成全面维修.
结论:
- 综合框架为评估灾害经济影响提供了一个强大的工具.
- 该研究强调了大地震对国家经济的重大经济后果.
- 模拟结果为灾难准备和经济复苏战略提供了宝贵的见解.
相关概念视频
Applications of GIS: Disaster Management and Emergency Response
62
Geographic Information System (GIS) technology is essential for risk identification, action prioritization, and resource optimization in critical situations like flooding and earthquakes. By integrating spatial and demographic data, GIS provides a comprehensive framework for emergency response.GIS integrates data layers, like rainfall intensity, topography, elevation profiles, and river levels, to model high-risk flood zones. These layers assess areas susceptible to flooding based on their...
62
Manipulation and Analysis
21
GIS manipulation and analysis functions are vital for decision-making and planning. These activities range from data retrieval tasks, such as selecting information based on specific criteria, to advanced analytical techniques that address complex spatial problems.One critical GIS analysis method is overlaying, which combines multiple data layers to examine impacts. For example, overlaying a river-dammed lake boundary with road networks can identify affected infrastructure. Another common...
21
Econometric Views (EViews)
120
Econometric Views, often stylized as EViews, is a package that merges statistical analysis with econometric studies. It is designed to provide tools for time series analysis, forecasting, and econometric model simulation. The software originated from MicroTSP software and has evolved significantly since its inception in 1981. The history of EViews is marked by a continuous effort to enhance its computational speed and user interface. It was initially developed for large computing systems but...
120
Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment
40
Flood risk assessment involves careful planning and analysis to ensure the safety of communities near water retention structures. Capacity contours are a vital tool in this process, as they illustrate the potential spread of water at specific levels in a given area. In the context of building a bund across a small valley, these contours play a critical role in evaluating the safety of nearby residential areas.In this example, the bund is intended to store stormwater in the valley. The engineers...
40
Levels of Use of a GIS
46
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) operate across three levels of application, each representing an increasing degree of complexity: data management, analysis, and prediction. These levels reflect the expanding functionality and versatility of GIS technology in handling spatial data for diverse purposes.Data ManagementAt its foundational level, GIS serves as a tool for data management, enabling the input, storage, retrieval, and organization of spatial data. This level is often employed in...
46
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
108
In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
108

