碳捕获和储存的可行部署以及气候目标的要求
Tsimafei Kazlou1,2, Aleh Cherp3,4, Jessica Jewell1,2,5,6
1Centre for Climate and Energy Transformation (CET), University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway.
概括
实现气候目标需要快速扩大碳捕获和储存 (CCS). 即使增长加速并减少故障,到2030年CCS的部署可能还不足以达到1.5°C的目标.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 能源政策 能源政策
- 环境工程 环境工程
背景情况:
- 气候变化缓解需要大规模部署碳捕获和储存 (CCS).
- 目前的CCS扩建计划面临着关于可行性的审查.
- 政策驱动技术的历史数据为CCS增长的预测提供了信息.
研究的目的:
- 评估到2030年预计碳捕获和储存 (CCS) 能力扩张的可行性.
- 确定CCS与气候缓解途径 (1.5°C和2°C) 保持一致所需的加速速度.
- 评估在各种增长情景下,到2100年捕获和储存的潜在二氧化碳总量.
主要方法:
- 分析CCS和其他政策驱动技术的历史增长率.
- 基于预计计划翻番和降低故障率的CCS容量扩展建模.
- 模拟CCS增长与已确定的气候缓解途径的比较.
主要成果:
- 在乐观的假设下 (计划翻倍,失败减少一半),CCS可以在2030年达到0.37 GtCO2 yr−1,与2°C,但不是1.5°C路径保持一致.
- 为了实现2°C的目标,CCS需要像风力发电 (2000年代),后来像核电 (1970年代-80年代) 一样加速发展.
- 只有10%的缓解途径符合这些严格的CCS可行性约束,到2100年将总储存量限制在600 GtCO2以下.
结论:
- 显著加速和提高CCS项目的成功率对于减缓气候变化至关重要.
- 目前的CCS扩张轨迹可能不足以实现雄心勃勃的气候目标.
- 放松约束,例如假设没有计划失败,可能会使潜在的二氧化碳储存增加一倍,但仍然不确定.
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