平均每日温度可以比率总和更好地预测疟疾传播的热极限
Marta S Shocket1,2,3, Joey R Bernhardt4, Kerri L Miazgowicz5
1Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, UK.
bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology
|October 10, 2024
概括
每天的温度波动显著影响蚊子的特征,这些特征对疾病传播至关重要. 目前使用恒温或速率总和的模型对于预测蚊子传播疾病风险的观察数据来说不那么准确.
科学领域:
- 媒介性疾病生态学 媒介性疾病生态学
- 昆虫的环境生理学
- 气候变化对疾病载体的影响
背景情况:
- 蚊子传播疾病的爆发受到温度的严重影响.
- 当前的预测模型通常依赖于常温数据来确定蚊子和病原体的热反应.
- 在波动的环境中预测性能的速率总和的准确性仍然在很大程度上未得到验证.
研究的目的:
- 调查日间温度波动对影响疾病传播的关键蚊子特征的影响.
- 为了比较不同方法 (恒温,速率总和) 在温度波动下预测蚊子性能时的准确性.
- 评估其对绘制热适应性和预测蚊子传播疾病风险的影响.
主要方法:
- 测量了*Anopheles stephensi*的咬伤率,存活率和生育率,这些都是在不同的日间温度范围 (0,9,12°C) 的温度梯度上进行测量.
- 在恒定和波动的温度下比较观察到的特征反应,并将其与速率总和模型的预测进行比较.
- 使用恒定温度数据绘制热适应性图,并将其与蚊子本地和入侵范围内的波动温度观测结果进行比较.
主要成果:
- 每天的温度波动显著改变了蚊子特征的热反应,影响疾病传播.
- 速率总和部分预测了接近热最佳的性能变化,但不准确地预测了接近热极限的性能.
- 基于恒温的热适应性模型虽然不完美,但在估计热极限时比速率总和预测更准确.
结论:
- 生物在波动的环境中的表现,比如蚊子的表现,与恒温预测有很大的不同.
- 速率总和是预测蚊子在变化温度下的性能的一个不完美的工具.
- 更好地了解蚊子对温度波动的反应对于准确的蚊子传播疾病风险预测和管理至关重要.
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