地缘政治风险对能源消费政策的影响:来自金国家的新经验证据
Mosab I Tabash1, Umar Farooq2, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan3
1College of Business, Al Ain University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates.
Heliyon
|October 10, 2024
概括
地缘政治风险 (GPR) 显著降低了金国家化石燃料和总能源消耗. 然而,GPR也推动了可再生能源消费的增加,突出了复杂的关系.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 能源政策 能源政策
- 国际关系 国际关系
背景情况:
- 地缘政治风险 (GPR) 是一个影响全球经济的日益严重的问题.
- 了解其对能源消耗模式的影响对于可持续发展至关重要.
- 金国家代表着一个有着不断变化的能源需求的重要集团.
研究的目的:
- 研究地缘政治风险对金国家能源消费的影响.
- 分析GPR对化石燃料,可再生能源和总能耗的影响.
- 探索经济因素对能源消耗的不对称影响,与GPR相关.
主要方法:
- 使用金国家 (1998-2022) 数据进行计量经济学分析.
- 完全修改的普通最小平方 (FMOLS),动态普通最小平方 (DOLS) 和自行回归分布式滞后 (ARDL) 模型的应用.
- 检查GPR,化石燃料能耗 (FEC),可再生能源能耗 (REC) 和总能耗 (TEC) 之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 在金国家,GPR对FEC和TEC产生了显著的负面影响.
- GPR对REC产生了显著的积极影响,表明向可再生能源的转变.
- 对于外国直接投资流入,经济增长,银行业发展和通货膨胀率等决定因素,观察到不对称的效应.
结论:
- 地缘政治风险在塑造金国家能源消费趋势方面发挥着至关重要的作用.
- 政策干预应考虑GPR对减少化石燃料使用的双重影响,同时促进可再生能源的采用.
- 这些发现为在日益波动的地缘政治格局中导航能源政策提供了必要的见解.
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