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选择景观离散方法会影响野生动物疾病传播模型中推断的传播速度
Mossa Merhi Reimert1, Maya Katrin Gussmann2, Anette Ella Boklund2
1Section for Animal Welfare and Disease Control, Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, University of Copenhagen,.
Journal of theoretical biology
|October 10, 2024
概括
景观的分类显著影响疾病传播模型. 六角形状为野猪疾病传播提供了更稳定的结果,与方形或三角形不同,突出了野生动物疾病建模中敏感性分析的需要.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
背景情况:
- 在畜牧业和野生动物界面的疾病建模对于管理疫情至关重要.
- 野生猪的非洲猪瘟 (ASF) 病例说明了疾病对家猪的溢出风险.
研究的目的:
- 调查景观分类方法如何影响野生动物模型中的疾病传播率.
- 评估贴片大小和形状对疾病传播动态的影响.
主要方法:
- 一个普通微分方程模型模拟了野猪种群之间的疾病传播.
- 场景变化了景观的分离成不同大小和形状的斑块 (方形,三角形,六角形).
- 疾病传播率在离散方法和补丁配置之间进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 斑块大小和疾病传播率之间存在一种非单调的关系.
- 方形和三角形的补丁形状产生了不稳定和不可预测的传播率.
- 六角分离证明了补丁大小和传播率之间的关系更稳定.
- 在小于实际现场尺度的补丁尺寸上实现了稳定的传播率.
结论:
- 疾病模型输出对景观离散选择敏感,引入不确定性.
- 敏感性分析对于验证野生动物疾病模型至关重要.
- 建议在正方形或三角形上采用六角形离散,以实现更强大的景观建模.
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