在复杂的项目中,考虑依赖性和不确定性的安全风险评估的多源信息融合
1School of Public Administration, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China.
概括
由于不确定性,道项目面临泄漏风险. 一种新的混合方法使用囊理论,云模型和风险矩阵有效评估这些风险,确定防水材料是关键问题.
科学领域:
- 土木工程 土木工程是指土木工程.
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 道项目对基础设施至关重要,但泄漏风险带来了重大挑战.
- 风险因素的不确定性和模糊性使准确的评估变得复杂.
研究的目的:
- 提出一种混合方法,以对道泄漏风险进行可靠的评估.
- 探索因子依赖,并有效地融合多源信息.
主要方法:
- 整合了配方理论,云模型和风险矩阵.
- 开发一个具有九个关键因素的风险指数系统.
- 使用Sobol支持的全球敏感性分析 (GSA) 的应用.
主要成果:
- 确定了三个道段的风险状态,分别为I级 (安全),II级 (低风险) 和III级 (中等风险).
- 防水材料的退化被确定为影响道段的关键因素.
- 证实了影响因素和研究因子依赖的必要性之间的强烈相互作用.
结论:
- 混合合云模型为道风险评估提供了一种可靠的方法,考虑到因素依赖性和不确定性.
- 拟议的方法提高了对风险趋势和因素贡献的理解.
- 中性风险矩阵在风险评估中表现出稳健性和高识别能力.
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