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基于热带气旋相关的人类流离失所的基于影响的预测,以支持预期行动
Pui Man Kam1,2, Fabio Ciccone3, Chahan M Kropf3,4
1Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland. mannie.kam@usys.ethz.ch.
Nature communications
|October 10, 2024
概括
热带气旋 (TCs) 每年使数百万人流离失所. 本研究介绍了一个开源的流离失所预测模型,将天气数据与人口和脆弱性信息结合起来,以改善灾害应对和减少影响.
科学领域:
- 地球和环境科学 地球和环境科学
- 减少灾害风险 减少灾害风险
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
背景情况:
- 热带气旋 (TCs) 是全球流离失所的主要驱动因素,需要采取有效的预测行动以减轻风险.
- 传统的天气预报不足以应对灾害;影响预报对于了解人口流离失所风险至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为TC相关的人类流离失所引入一种新的,开源的,全球一致的和区域校准的预测模型.
- 通过案例研究和敏感性分析,评估气象,暴露和脆弱性不确定性对流离失所预测的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个计算效率高的开源模型,集成了气象预报,人口数据和脆弱性指数.
- 在斐济进行了热带气旋Yasa的案例研究,并对2017-2020年TC流失事件进行了敏感性分析.
主要成果:
- 该模型提供了低成本,全球一致,区域校准的TC相关流离失所预测.
- 不确定性分析显示了潜在的流离失所结果的显著差异,强调需要考虑危险,暴露和脆弱性的变化.
- 灵敏度分析表明,气象不确定性是延长交货时间的关键,而当地的脆弱性则是接近着陆的关键.
结论:
- 开发的开源模型通过提供关于人口流离失所的关键影响预测信息来增强灾难准备.
- 调查结果强调了不同不确定性因素 (气象与脆弱性) 在基于领先时间的TC移位预测中的动态重要性.
- 易于转移的代码和实现方便在各种危险和影响类型中实现更广泛的应用,以改善灾害管理.
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