气候因素对中国西部细菌性痢疾的滞后影响
Rui Li1, Dongpeng Liu2, Tingrong Wang1
1Institute of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China.
Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
|October 11, 2024
概括
气候因素,如温度和湿度显著影响细菌性痢疾 (BD) 发病率,影响通常出现在当前或下一个月. 经济差异也影响了BD的发生,需要持续监测.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 细菌性痢疾 (BD) 的发病率与气候有关.
- 气候对 BD 的滞后影响尚不清楚,特别是在干旱地区.
研究的目的:
- 调查气候因素对甘省细菌性痢疾发病率的滞后影响.
- 探索经济因素对BD差异的影响.
主要方法:
- 空间自相关性,时间序列分析和空间时间扫描用于BD病例分析 (2009-2019).
- 多变量分布式滞后非线性模型用于评估气候-BD关系 (2015-2019).
主要成果:
- 疾病发病热点集中在甘省南部.
- 最大的相对风险与温度 (3.21),阳光 (1.64),湿度 (1.55) 和降水 (1.41) 有关.
- 滞后效应在0-1个月内达到顶峰,暴露-反应曲线因滞后时间而异;经济因素显示出差异性影响.
结论:
- 气候因素影响BD发病率,时间延迟的影响.
- 监测经济差异对于解决BD发病率的变化至关重要.
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