基于机器学习的风险预测主要不良心血管事件在巴西医院:开发,外部验证和可解释性
Gilson Yuuji Shimizu1, Michael Schrempf2,3, Elen Almeida Romão1
1Ribeirão Preto Medical School, University of São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil.
PloS one
|October 11, 2024
概括
随机森林机器学习模型准确预测主要不良心血管事件 (MACE) 风险. 沙普利值提高了解释性,帮助个性化心血管疾病预防策略.
科学领域:
- 心血管疾病研究研究
- 医疗保健中的机器学习
- 预测分析是一种预测分析.
背景情况:
- 对心血管疾病 (CVD) 风险的机器学习模型往往缺乏外部验证和解释性.
- 这项研究开发并验证了主要不良心血管事件 (MACE) 的预测模型.
- 进行了可解释性分析,以提高模型可靠性和个性化干预.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证用于预测MACE5年风险的机器学习模型.
- 评估模型在不同人群中的概括能力.
- 通过使用LIME和Shapley值来分析模型解释性,以改善临床应用.
主要方法:
- 在巴西 (RPMS) 和美国 (BIDMC) 的回顾性数据上训练并验证了八个机器学习算法.
- 利用MACE和非MACE病例的平衡数据集进行内部和外部验证.
- 使用准确度和ROC AUC评估预测性能;应用LIME和Shapley进行解释性.
主要成果:
- 随机森林显示出优异的预测性能,AUC为0.871 (内部) 和0.786 (外部).
- 随机森林的精度为0.794 (内部) 和0.710 (外部).
- 沙普利值为模型解释性提供了比LIME更一致的特征解释.
结论:
- 随机森林展示了MACE风险预测的最佳概括.
- 与LIME相比,Shapley值提供了更有信息的本地解释性.
- 强烈的概括性和可解释性的机器学习模型被推用于个性化的心血管疾病风险评估和预防.
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