全球大气河流的极点向北移动
1Department of Geography and Earth Research Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA.
Science advances
|October 11, 2024
概括
大气河流 (ARs) 正因热带太平洋的冷却而向极移动. 这种由海洋变化驱动的转变影响了热带以外的降雨模式,并突出了AR对气候变化的敏感性.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 大气河流 (ARs) 对于热带以外的降雨和向极流转移水分至关重要.
- 气候模型预测,由于人为强迫,AR活动增加.
- 重新分析显示,近几十年来AR的极向转移显著.
研究的目的:
- 研究大气河流观测到的极向转移背后的驱动因素.
- 了解热带太平洋海面温度变化在AR迁移中的作用.
- 阐明影响AR行为的反机制.
主要方法:
- 对重新分析数据的分析,以追踪AR转移.
- 在热带东太平洋海面温度 (SST) 趋势的调查.
- 检查旋转-平均流量反机制.
主要成果:
- 自2000年以来,热带东太平洋SST的降温趋势被认为是全球AR转变的关键驱动因素.
- 这种转变的特点是,在高度 (50°N/S) 上增加了AR,在低度 (30°N/S) 上活动减少.
- 热带驱动的旋转平均流量反机制与此转变有关,也通过ENSO影响年际变化.
结论:
- 低频热带太平洋SST变化是观察到的极向AR转移的主要原因.
- 鉴定的机制表明AR对大规模循环变化的敏感性.
- 未来的AR行为将受到内部气候变化和外部强迫的影响.
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