到2050年为全球粮食安全采取战略干预措施
Adrija Roy1, Hamid Moradkhani1, Mesfin Mekonnen1
1Center for Complex Hydrosystems Research, The University of Alabama, United States of America; Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, The University of Alabama, United States of America.
The Science of the total environment
|October 11, 2024
概括
到2050年,全球粮食安全面临着挑战,由于水资源紧张和生产赤字,在几个地区发现了关键风险. 战略干预可以减轻这些风险,但一些地区仍将面临谷物赤字和进口依赖.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 食品安全研究 食品安全研究
背景情况:
- 全球粮食安全是一个关键问题,特别是在主要的谷物作物方面.
- 预测未来的生产对于了解到2050年所面临的挑战至关重要.
- 农业生态区 (AEZ) 影响作物生产和脆弱性.
研究的目的:
- 通过在各种共享社会经济路径下预测谷物生产,探索全球粮食安全挑战.
- 到2050年,确定面临粮食不安全危险的地区.
- 评估减缓战略对未来粮食安全的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 进行未来预测.
- 分析谷物生产,水资源压力和进口依赖.
- 绘制农业生态区 (AEZ) 地图,以评估区域脆弱性.
主要成果:
- 在非洲 (得,苏丹,阿尔及利亚,索马里,纳米比亚),中亚,中东 (沙特阿拉伯),美国西部和澳大利亚因水资源紧张和生产赤字而存在关键风险.
- 增加收获面积可以显著降低风险,并可能在某些地区创造余.
- 预计到本世纪中叶,伊朗,委内瑞拉,撒哈拉以南非洲,沙特阿拉伯和东南亚部分地区将持续出现谷物生产赤字和高度依赖进口.
结论:
- 节水技术和有效的治理对于平衡作物生产和用水至关重要.
- 解决水资源短缺问题对于实现全球粮食安全至关重要.
- 战略干预是必要的,以减轻脆弱地区的风险,并确保可持续的粮食供应.
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