考虑使用基于树的机器学习来评估人口和环境风险因素与健康结果之间的因果关系
Daniela Galatro1, Alessia Di Nardo2, Varun Pai3
1Department of Chemical Engineering and Applied Chemistry, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada. daniela.galatro@utoronto.ca.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|October 11, 2024
概括
因果随机森林 (CRF) 和其他机器学习方法可以评估暴露.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 对异质治疗效应 (HTE) 的评估对于了解个人对干预措施的反应至关重要.
- 机器学习 (ML) 方法为HTE分析提供了先进的工具,克服了传统模型的局限性.
- 儿童急性髓性白血病 (AML) 风险评估需要了解等环境暴露.
研究的目的:
- 将三种基于树的ML算法 (CRF,CBART,CRE) 进行比较,以评估暴露对儿童AML的因果作用.
- 根据平均治疗效果 (ATE),确定系数和计算时间来评估这些算法的性能.
- 调查CRF对噪声和环境健康数据中的异常值的稳定性.
主要方法:
- 利用来自先前存在的AML概率模型的模拟数据.
- 应用因果随机森林 (CRF),因果贝叶斯增量回归树 (CBART) 和因果规则组合 (CRE).
- 对ATE,回归R平方和计算效率进行比较的算法;测试CRF,添加噪声和异常值.
主要成果:
- 这三种算法都显示了ATE和R平方的最小差异.
- 与CBART相比,CRF显示出更高的计算效率.
- 由于CRF能够处理连续和二进制处理变量,因此更适合环境暴露研究.
结论:
- CRF是一种强大的,高效的ML算法,用于环境健康中的HTE分析.
- 结果指导研究人员在风险评估中应用ML来确定污染物暴露值.
- CRF的灵活性提高了其在复杂的环境流行病学研究中的实用性.
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