在社区居住的老年人中开发和验证失调的预测模型
Yufeng Qiu1, Wenfeng Xue1, Yanxin Chen1
1Department of Nursing, the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of School of Medicine, and International School of Medicine, International Institutes of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Yiwu, China.
Biological research for nursing
|October 14, 2024
概括
一个新的预测模型有助于识别老年人的吞障碍 (吞困难). 该工具有助于早期预防策略,改善老年人的健康状况和生活质量.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 临床医学 临床医学
背景情况:
- 缺水症是一种常见的老年综合征,具有严重的并发症,包括脱水,营养不良和肺炎.
- 早期识别和干预对于管理食障碍和改善老年人生活质量至关重要.
- 现有的评估工具可能无法在社区居住的老年人群中充分预测缺食症风险.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证社区居住的老年人食障碍的预测模型.
- 创建一个实用的评估工具,用于预防和管理失调症.
主要方法:
- 一项涉及3655名中国老年人 (≥65岁) 的横截面研究,这些老年人被随机分配到培训和验证组.
- 后勤回归分析确定了缺食症的独立风险因素.
- 使用R软件构建了一个名ogram预测模型,通过ROC曲线,校准图和决策曲线分析 (DCA) 进行验证.
主要成果:
- 不消化症的发生率为11.8%. 关键预测因素包括舌头最大压力,牙数量,肺炎,ADL,肉,年龄,神经和类风湿性免疫疾病.
- 预测模型显示出良好的区分能力 (AUC 0.709训练,0.693验证) 和适当的校准.
- 决策曲线分析表明该模型具有积极的临床净益.
结论:
- 开发的诺莫格拉姆模型表明,在社区居住的老年人中,缺食症风险的预测价值显著.
- 该工具可以帮助医疗保健专业人员制定有针对性的预防策略.
- 早期风险评估可以减少患者的财务负担,提高整体生活质量.
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