成年人心血管事件的年轻人的预测因素
Joel Nuotio1,2,3, Tomi T Laitinen1,3,4, Costan G Magnussen1,5
1Research Centre of Applied and Preventive Cardiovascular Medicine, Centre for Population Health Research.
儿童的危险因素,如肥胖和高血压,预测成人心血管事件. 将脂质水平添加到这些非实验室因素中并没有提高预测的准确性.
科学领域:
- 心血管疾病的研究研究.
- 青少年健康 青少年健康
- 医学中的预测建模.
背景情况:
- 儿童期风险因素与成人心血管事件有关.
- 评估心血管疾病的预测模型至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较青少年非实验室风险因素的预测效用与包括脂肪在内的模型对成人心血管事件的预测效用.
主要方法:
- 利用了7项纵向队列研究中的11,550名参与者的数据.
- 测量青少年危险因素:超重/肥胖,高血压,吸烟和脂质水平.
- 追踪了25岁以后发生的致命或非致命的心血管疾病事件.
主要成果:
- 青少年超重,肥胖,高血压,吸烟和高总胆固醇预测了成人心血管事件.
- 添加脂质测量 (总胆固醇,甘油三) 并没有提高预测模型的歧视性 (C-统计仍然为0.75).
结论:
- 青春期非实验室风险因素和脂质独立预测成人心血管事件.
- 将脂质测量纳入非实验室风险因素模型并不能改善心血管事件预测.
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