使用预测市场预测移民流动
Sandra Morgenstern1, Oliver Strijbis2,3
1Mannheim Centre for European Social Research (MZES), University of Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany.
概括
预测市场为移民预测提供了一种新且精确的方法,其表现优于传统方法. 这项研究证明了它们在预测移民流动方面的有效性,增强了未来的管理策略.
科学领域:
- 社会科学 社会科学 社会科学
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
背景情况:
- 准确的移民预测对于有效的移民和融合政策至关重要.
- 当前的移民预测方法往往缺乏所需的准确性.
- 预测市场在政治经济学中已经建立,但在移民研究中未得到充分利用.
研究的目的:
- 引入和评估预测市场作为移民预测的替代方法.
- 探索预测市场如何整合专家知识并平衡定性/定量方法.
- 评估在西欧国家使用预测市场进行移民预测的可行性和结果.
主要方法:
- 应用预测市场来预测2020年四个西欧国家的移民情况.
- 制定策略,以避免稀薄交易,并在市场中整合专家知识.
- 对预测市场表现与现有预测方法 (隐含) 的比较分析.
主要成果:
- 预测市场在预测移民方面取得了令人鼓舞的结果.
- 该方法证明了在迁移运动预测中提高准确性的潜力.
- 在现实世界的预测场景中成功应用了预测市场.
结论:
- 预测市场为移民预测提供了一个有希望的,精确的替代方案.
- 该方法提供了一种整合多元知识和提高预测准确性的方法.
- 需要进一步的研究来探索未来应用的优势,局限性和伦理考虑.
更多相关视频
12:26Integrating Remote Sensing with Species Distribution Models; Mapping Tamarisk Invasions Using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling SAHM
Published on: October 11, 2016
13.3K
07:27Quantitative Analysis of Random Migration of Cells Using Time-lapse Video Microscopy
Published on: May 13, 2012
16.8K
相关概念视频
Migration
7.9K
Migration is long-range, seasonal movement from one region or habitat to another. This common strategy, carried out by many different organisms around the world, is an adaptive response that typically corresponds to changes in an organism’s environment, like resource availability or climate. Migrations can involve huge groups of thousands of animals as well as single individuals traveling alone and can range from thousands of kilometers to just a few hundred meters.
7.9K
Cell Migration
16.9K
Cell migration, the process by which cells move from one location to another, is essential for the proper development and viability of organisms throughout their life. When cells are not able to migrate properly to their ordained locations, various disorders may occur. For example, disruption in cell migration causes chronic inflammatory diseases such as arthritis.
16.9K
Levels of Use of a GIS
46
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) operate across three levels of application, each representing an increasing degree of complexity: data management, analysis, and prediction. These levels reflect the expanding functionality and versatility of GIS technology in handling spatial data for diverse purposes.Data ManagementAt its foundational level, GIS serves as a tool for data management, enabling the input, storage, retrieval, and organization of spatial data. This level is often employed in...
46
