使用家庭和室外温度和问卷调查数据建模个人温度暴露:对流行病学研究的影响
Xi Xia1, Ka Hung Chan2, Yue Niu3
1Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, China; Key Laboratory of Environment and Genes Related to Diseases, Ministry of Education, Xi'an, China; Clinical Trial Service Unit and Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; School of Public Health, Shaanxi University of Chinese Medicine, Xi'an, China; The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
对健康至关重要的个人温度暴露与户外读数显著不同,特别是在冬季. 准确的个人温度预测模型对于避免流行病学研究中的错误分类至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物气象学生物气象学
背景情况:
- 非最佳温度是全球主要的疾病风险因素.
- 流行病学研究通常依赖于室外温度,导致潜在的个人暴露错误分类.
- 了解个人温度暴露对于准确的健康风险评估至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在不同的微观环境中测量个人,家庭和户外温度.
- 开发和验证用于预测个人温度暴露的模型.
- 为了检查个人和室外温度和心率之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 在CKB-Air研究中,中国有477名参与者,收集了两个季节的数据.
- 多变量线性回归 (MLR) 和随机森林 (RF) 模型被用来确定个人温度的预测指标.
- 一般化添加混合效应模型分析了温度暴露和心率之间的关联.
主要成果:
- 个人和户外温度显示季节性变化,冬季的差异更大.
- 家庭温度是冬季个人温度的强有力的预测指标,与室外温度不同.
- 开发的MLR和RF模型证明了个人暴露的预测准确度令人满意 (R2夏季:0.92;R2冬季:0.68-0.70).
- 在个人体温暴露和心率之间观察到U形的关联.
结论:
- 个人体温暴露与户外测量有很大的不同,尤其是在冬季.
- 结合家庭和户外温度的预测模型,以及问卷数据,提供准确的个人暴露估计.
- 在流行病学研究中仅依赖室外温度可能导致暴露错误分类和有缺陷的发现.
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