印度禁止使用全球部分平衡模拟模型 (GSIM) 出口非巴斯马提大米的双边贸易福利影响
Eihab Fathelrahman1, Raeda Osman1, Dana Loyd Keske Hoag2
1Department of Integrative Agriculture, College of Agriculture and Veterinary Medicine, United Arab Emirates University (UAEU), Al-Ain P.O. Box 15551, United Arab Emirates.
Foods (Basel, Switzerland)
|October 16, 2024
概括
印度禁止非巴斯马提白米出口对全球市场产生重大影响,造成17亿美元的福利损失. 这种对大米贸易的限制特别影响了撒哈拉以南非洲和中东等地区.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 国际贸易政策 国际贸易政策
- 全球市场模拟全球市场模拟
背景情况:
- 印度是大米的主要出口国,对非巴斯马提白米出口实施禁令,影响其出口的25%和全球贸易的10%.
- 出口禁令的目的是稳定国内价格,并确保印度消费者可用性.
- 全球大米市场的可访问性,消费者和12个地区的生产者受到这一贸易限制的影响.
研究的目的:
- 分析印度禁止出口非巴斯马提白米的经济影响.
- 评估贸易限制对全球福利,贸易价值和市场余的影响.
- 评估进口国潜在降低关税对减轻损失的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用全球模拟模型 (GSIM) 模拟贸易政策变化.
- 采用国家产品差异化以在不同规模上建模贸易影响.
- 研究了对进口商和出口商贸易价值,关税收入和市场余的影响.
主要成果:
- 印度的出口禁令导致当地价格上,全球净福利损失17亿美元.
- 福利损失下降到14亿美元,进口关税降低25%,11亿美元,减少75%.
- 撒哈拉以南非洲,中东,北非和海湾合作委员会地区经历了最严重的负面影响.
结论:
- 印度的非巴斯马提大米出口禁令造成了相当大的全球经济福利损失.
- 进口国家的关税调整可以部分抵消这种贸易限制对福利的负面影响.
- 该研究强调了全球食品市场的相互联系以及主要出口国贸易政策的深远影响.
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