选民不信任推迟的选举结果,但预先预测的信息可以预防不信任
Mackenzie Lockhart1, Jennifer Gaudette2, Seth J Hill2
1Institution for Social and Policy Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA.
PNAS nexus
|October 16, 2024
概括
选举结果延迟会降低选民的信任,但选举前的信息可以减轻这一点. 让选民了解投票计票流程和合法延误可以提高人们对选举诚信的信心.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 心理学 心理学 心理学
- 沟通研究 沟通研究
背景情况:
- 美国的选举结果表经常延伸到选举之夜之后.
- 这种延迟往往与公众对选举结果的信心下降有关.
- 延迟结果和减少信任之间的因果关系仍然未得到充分探索.
研究的目的:
- 调查是否延迟宣布选举结果导致选民信任下降.
- 检查积极的选民教育是否可以抵消延迟结果引起的不信任.
- 确定选举官员在延长计票期间保持公众信任的策略.
主要方法:
- 一项预先注册的调查实验,涉及近1万名美国参与者.
- 参与者接触到有关投票计票时间表和预封信息的不同信息条件.
- 选民对选举完整性的信任被衡量为主要结果变量.
主要成果:
- 通知参与者意外的投票计票延误显著降低了他们对选举的信心.
- 暴露于解释延迟合法原因的"预测"视频,大大减轻了结果延迟对信任的负面影响.
- 积极的选民教育在保持信任方面比反应性沟通更有效.
结论:
- 选举结果报告的意外延迟可以直接导致选民信任的显著下降,独立于外部错误信息.
- 通过告知选民投票计票过程和潜在的延误,预选策略可以有效地增加和保持选举信任.
- 选举官员应优先考虑选民教育,以管理预期并保持信任,特别是当预计会有延误时.
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