对恐怖组织的口头攻击增加了对平民的暴力行为
Iliyan Iliev1, Nahrain Bet Younadam2, Brandon J Kinne3
1School of Social Science and Global Studies, University of Southern Mississippi, Hattiesburg, MS 39406, USA.
PNAS nexus
|October 16, 2024
概括
政府对像ISIS这样的极端组织进行口头胁迫,反作用,增加对平民的袭击. 这一战略低估了极端主义者的决心,导致了更糟糕的人道主义结果.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 国际关系 国际关系
- 冲突研究 冲突研究
背景情况:
- 跨国极端组织在全球范围内造成重大平民伤亡.
- 政府经常对这些群体使用口头胁迫.
- 对恐怖主义行为的口头胁迫的有效性仍未得到充分研究.
研究的目的:
- 调查政府口头冲突对极端主义团体,特别是伊拉克和叙利亚伊斯兰国 (ISIS) 行为的影响.
- 为了确定口头胁迫是否能威或升级恐怖袭击.
- 探索观察到对极端主义团体行为影响的潜在原因.
主要方法:
- 贝叶斯结构向量自回归模型用于分析每日事件数据.
- 数据涵盖了2014-2020年ISIS与外国政府之间的互动.
- 经验分析补充了来自ISIS出版物和公开声明的证据.
主要成果:
- 政府发起的口头冲突并没有阻止ISIS;相反,它增加了ISIS对平民的袭击频率.
- 这种升级与感知到的信誉缺陷有关,极端分子对口头挑战以暴力回应以表明决心.
- 在扩展到伊拉克基地组织和博科圣地的分析中观察到类似的模式.
结论:
- 政府对极端组织的口头胁迫策略是反作用的.
- 极端主义团体可能会升级暴力,以应对口头挑战,以提高他们的声誉和感知能力.
- 调查结果表明,需要重新评估反恐沟通策略,以避免意外升级和减轻人道主义后果.
相关概念视频
Bullying
8.4K
A modern form of aggression is bullying. As you learn in your study of child development, socializing and playing with other children is beneficial for children’s psychological development. However, as you may have experienced as a child, not all play behavior has positive outcomes. Some children are aggressive and want to play roughly. Other children are selfish and do not want to share toys. One form of negative social interactions among children that has become a national concern is...
8.4K
Aggression
27.7K
Humans engage in aggression when they seek to cause harm or pain to another person. Aggression takes two forms depending on one’s motives: hostile or instrumental. Hostile aggression is motivated by feelings of anger with intent to cause pain; a fight in a bar with a stranger is an example of hostile aggression. In contrast, instrumental aggression is motivated by achieving a goal and does not necessarily involve intent to cause pain (Berkowitz, 1993); a contract killer who murders for...
27.7K
Group Polarization
34.2K
Group polarization is the strengthening of an original group attitude following the discussion of views within a group (Teger & Pruitt, 1967). That is, if a group initially favors a viewpoint, after discussion the group consensus is likely a stronger endorsement of the viewpoint. Conversely, if the group was initially opposed to a viewpoint, group discussion would likely lead to stronger opposition.
34.2K
Group Design
8.9K
The most basic experimental design involves two groups: the experimental group and the control group. The two groups are designed to be the same except for one difference— experimental manipulation. The experimental group gets the experimental manipulation—that is, the treatment or variable being tested—and the control group does not. Since experimental manipulation is the only difference between the experimental and control groups, we can be sure that any differences between...
8.9K
Bystander Effect
9.5K
The discussion of bullying highlights the problem of witnesses not intervening to help a victim. This is a common occurrence, as the following well-publicized event demonstrates. In 1964, in Queens, New York, a 19-year-old woman named Kitty Genovese was attacked by a person with a knife near the back entrance to her apartment building and again in the hallway inside her apartment building. When the attack occurred, she screamed for help numerous times and eventually died from her stab wounds.
9.5K
Post-traumatic Stress Disorder
29
Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a psychiatric condition that arises following exposure to traumatic events such as natural disasters, forced displacement, or severe accidents. It significantly impairs individuals' ability to cope with daily activities and disrupts their emotional and psychological equilibrium.
Symptoms and Behavioral Manifestations
A spectrum of distressing symptoms characterizes PTSD. Recurrent flashbacks, where individuals involuntarily relive traumatic events,...
Symptoms and Behavioral Manifestations
A spectrum of distressing symptoms characterizes PTSD. Recurrent flashbacks, where individuals involuntarily relive traumatic events,...
29


