校准数据的不确定性如何影响基流中非点源污染物负载的建模
Shuai Chen1, Wei Qin2, Tong Cui3
1School of Water Conservancy & Environment Engineering, Zhejiang University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Hangzhou 310018, China; The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing.
Journal of contaminant hydrology
|October 16, 2024
概括
流域模型校准数据的不确定性显著影响基流酸盐负载预测. 非追踪水谱分离方法为估计这些负载提供了实用方法,改善了水质管理决策.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 水质建模水质建模
背景情况:
- 基流是非点源 (NPS) 污染物,特别是酸盐的主要通道.
- 流域水质 (WWQ) 模型中的校准数据不准确,可能导致基流污染物负载的预测有缺陷,从而损害管理策略.
- 了解校准数据不确定性对基流酸盐负载建模的影响,对于有效的流域管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了评估校准数据不确定性对基流酸盐负载预测的影响,使用土壤和水评估工具加 (SWAT+) 模型.
- 为了比较基于追踪器和非追踪器的水文分离方法在估计基流酸盐负载时的性能.
- 评估与不同数据集校准的WWQ模型相关的参数和预测不确定性.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自休伦河流域的每日流量,酸盐度和特定导电数据的五年时间序列.
- 估计的"观察"基流酸盐负载数据不确定性,使用基于和非基于标记的水文分离技术.
- 校准了SWAT+模型并采用了通用概率不确定性估计 (GLUE) 方法来量化不确定性.
主要成果:
- 基础流量对总流量贡献了26% - 34%,对盆地的总酸盐负载贡献了8% - 37%.
- 非追踪方法产生了与追踪方法相似的基流和酸盐负载估计,但不确定性更高.
- 模型预测显示了不同校准数据集和GLUE值概率值之间的最小变化.
结论:
- 校准数据的不确定性显著影响基流NPS污染物负载建模.
- 基于非追踪器的水文分离方法是可行的,更简单的,并且广泛适用于估计基流NPS污染物负载.
- 使用基流污染物负载/度进行准确的校准对于解决与基流相关的水质问题至关重要.
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