在气候变化背景下,Borrelia miyamotoi的全球风险动态
Tian Tang1, Hong-Han Ge1, Tian Ma2,3
1State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Academy of Military Medical Science, Beijing, China.
Environmental microbiology
|October 16, 2024
概括
全球变暖正在使的息地向北移动,减少了适合Borrelia miyamotoi的区域. 在这些不断变化的公共卫生风险区,加强监测至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 载体传播疾病 载体传播疾病
背景情况:
- 尽管的种群和分布不断扩大,但Borrelia miyamotoi对人类健康的影响尚不清楚.
- 全球气候变化是影响传播病原体动态的一个重要因素.
研究的目的:
- 在全球气候变化场景下评估Borrelia miyamotoi的全球风险.
- 为了预测未来的息地适合性的关键 Ixodes 媒介.
主要方法:
- 使用增强回归树和随机森林模型.
- 对Ixodes persulcatus,Ixodes ricinus,Ixodes pacificus和Ixodes scapularis的预计息地适宜性.
- 纳入了共享的社会经济路径场景和各种时间段.
主要成果:
- 由于全球变暖,预计I. persulcatus,I. ricinus和I. pacificus的北向转移和息地减少.
- 波雷利亚miyamotoi风险地区的缩小和向北移动,特别是在美国东部,欧洲和东北亚.
- 与其他载体相比, Ixodes scapularis 的分布模式不同.
结论:
- 气候变化显著改变了Borrelia miyamotoi载体的分布和相关风险.
- 迫切需要加强对预计风险区域内虫种群中Borrelia miyamotoi的监测.
- 这些发现对有关传播疾病的公共卫生战略有影响.
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