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绘制高分辨率的全球网格人口分布,从1870年到2100年
Haoming Zhuang1, Xiaoping Liu2, Bingjie Li3
1School of Geography and Tourism, Jiaying University, Meizhou, China; Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-Simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
The Science of the total environment
|October 16, 2024
概括
一个新的1公里分辨率的全球网格人口数据集,从1870年到2100年,揭示了S形人口增长和洪水暴露的增加. 这些长期数据有助于了解人口动态和灾害风险. (共享的社会经济路径)
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 地理空间分析是什么
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 长期的全球网格化人口数据对于了解人口动态和灾难暴露至关重要.
- 现有的数据集仅限于单个时间段,阻碍了全面的时空分析.
研究的目的:
- 创建一个连贯的,一致的,高分辨率 (1公里) 的全球网格化人口数据集,涵盖1870-2100年.
- 在各种共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 下建模历史人口变化和未来预测.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个统一的数据和方法框架,用于人口数据的整合.
- 利用观察到的人口地图 (2000-2020年),历史后预测 (1870-2000年) 和未来预测 (2020-2100年).
- 将数据集与现有数据进行验证,重点是改善建筑区内的分布.
主要成果:
- 数据显示,从1870年到2100年,全球人口增加了4.17至8.49倍 (SSPs),这表明对可持续发展的压力.
- 揭示了不同地区和场景的不同空间和时间人口动态.
- 显示全球人口受洪水影响的显著增加,从1870年的10.61%增加到2100年的11.98%-13.93% (SSPs).
结论:
- 提供一致的,长期的 (200+年),高分辨率的全球网格化人口数据集.
- 提供了对全球人口的整个生命周期的有价值的见解.
- 强调洪水易发生地区人口不断增长,强调灾害风险和可持续发展的挑战.
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