基于讨价还价游戏模式的旧社区更新项目的风险共享模式
Xiaosen Huo1, Hao Xue1, Xingbang Xu2
1School of Economics and Management, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing, 400074, China.
Scientific reports
|October 16, 2024
概括
合理的风险分配是老社区更新项目 (OCRP) 的关键. 本研究提出了一个模型,以确定政府和私营部门之间的最佳风险共享,确保顺利实施项目和可持续的城市发展.
科学领域:
- 城市规划和发展
- 公共政策和行政管理.
- 风险管理 风险管理
背景情况:
- 由于复杂的风险因素,旧社区更新项目 (OCRP) 面临重大实施挑战.
- 公共和私营部门之间有效的风险分配对于OCRP的成功至关重要,特别是在公私伙伴关系 (PPP) 模式下.
研究的目的:
- 确定OCRP中的关键风险因素.
- 开发一个评估系统来评估参与者的风险分配能力.
- 在OCRP中提出政府和私营部门之间最佳风险共享的模型.
主要方法:
- 在OCRP中全面识别了20个关键风险因素.
- 建立一个具有9个评估指数的三维指数系统,以评估风险分配能力.
- 开发一个风险分担模型,整合TOPSIS方法和谈判游戏模型.
主要成果:
- 该研究确定了政府 (包括政治,法律和政策风险在内的7个风险) 和私营部门 (包括融资,设计,施工,运营和维护风险在内的8个风险) 独立承担的特定风险.
- 确定了5种需要共同责任的风险的风险分担比率.
- 重庆一家OCRP的案例研究证实了该模型的适用性.
结论:
- 拟议的风险共享模型为PPP下OCRP的风险分配提供了科学基础.
- 结果为确保城市更新项目的顺利实施和促进可持续发展提供了实际指导.
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