确定对经济合作与发展组织 (OECD) 国家卫生支出有影响力的变量
Tugce Issever1, Bahar Sennaroglu2, Cem Cagri Donmez2
1Department of Industrial Engineering, Institute of Pure and Applied Sciences, Marmara University, Goztepe Campus, Istanbul, Turkey.
这项研究确定了影响经济合作与发展组织 (OECD) 国家的卫生支出的关键因素. 人均国内生产总值,预期寿命,死亡率,自费支出和生育率显著影响国家卫生预算.
科学领域:
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 全球卫生支出呈现出持续上升的趋势.
- 确定卫生支出的主要驱动因素对于可持续的国家预算规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析经济合作与发展组织 (OECD) 国家的卫生支出趋势.
- 确定影响国家卫生支出的经济,人口和健康相关变量.
主要方法:
- 利用世界银行的数据 (2000 - 2018) 来计算经合组织国家的当前卫生支出 (占GDP的%).
- 采用Chi-平方自动相互作用检测 (CHAID) 决策树技术进行分析.
- 在经济,人口和健康类别中选择了15个变量来构建预测模型.
主要成果:
- 确定了影响当前医疗支出的五个关键变量:人均GDP,出生预期寿命,死亡率,自费支出和生育率.
- 根据卫生支出预测规则,将37个经合组织国家分为11个不同的组.
- 显示出强大的预测性能,实际和预测的医疗支出价值之间有很高的相关性.
结论:
- CHAID决策树技术有效地提供了一个基于规则的图形模型,用于理解医疗支出驱动因素.
- 这些已识别的变量为预测卫生支出和为经合组织国家财务可持续性战略提供了有价值的见解.
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