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使用参与式系统动态建模进行社会水文建模,通过蓝绿基础设施增强城市抗洪能力
Virginia Rosa Coletta1,2, Alessandro Pagano2, Nici Zimmermann3
1Department of Civil, Environmental, Land, Construction and Chemistry, Polytechnic University of Bari, Bari, Italy.
概括
本研究使用系统动力学来建模城市洪水风险,整合社会和水文因素. 它强调了蓝绿基础设施.
科学领域:
- 城市系统分析 城市系统分析
- 环境工程环境工程
- 社会水文学的社会水文学.
背景情况:
- 由于气候变化,城市化和基础设施老化,城市洪水是一个越来越大的挑战.
- 传统的水文模型不足以捕捉城市系统的复杂相互作用,阻碍了有效的洪水风险管理.
- 社会水文建模通过整合社会和水文过程来增强对洪水抗性理解,提供了一个互补的方法.
研究的目的:
- 提出和应用一种使用系统动态 (SD) 的参与式社会水文建模方法.
- 量化分析洪水风险与城市系统组件之间的反.
- 评估蓝绿基础设施 (BGI) 在城市抗洪能力方面的作用.
主要方法:
- 基于系统动力学 (SD) 的参与式社会水文建模.
- 整合科学专业知识与利益相关者的知识,用于模型开发.
- 洪水风险降低措施与城市子系统之间的相互作用的定量分析.
主要成果:
- SD定量建模为决策者提供了对洪水风险和抗灾能力的可操作见解.
- 结合科学知识和利益相关者的知识,可以提高模型的定制性,并确定有效的弹性措施.
- 蓝绿基础设施 (BGI) 提供了水文,社会和环境的共同利益,特别是当与灰色基础设施集成时.
结论:
- 社会水文模型,特别是SD,对于理解复杂的城市洪水动态至关重要.
- 参与式方法和利益相关者的参与显著改善了洪水风险管理策略.
- 蓝绿基础设施为增强城市抗洪能力和可持续性提供了一种多益解决方案.
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