在黄河流域沿着城市碳峰值的预测和实现路径的研究
Guangyao Deng1,2, Qian Zhu1, Yingchen Shen1
1School of Statistics and Data Science, Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics, Lanzhou, China.
Heliyon
|October 21, 2024
概括
中国黄河流域城市面临减排压力. 如果没有干预,碳峰值预计将在2033年达到,但优化可以在2026年实现.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 可持续发展 可持续发展 可持续发展
- 气候变化建模模型
背景情况:
- 中国的黄河流域是一个重要的能源枢纽,具有减少碳排放和改善沉的潜力.
- 可持续发展和碳排放峰值是关键的全球和国家优先事项.
研究的目的:
- 分析碳排放趋势并预测黄河流域城市的碳峰值.
- 评估不同发展路径对实现碳峰值目标的影响.
主要方法:
- 对56个城市 (2000-2021) 的社会,自然发展和碳排放数据进行分析.
- 使用PSO-XGBoost-RF模型进行碳峰值预测.
- 对不同的开发和优化场景进行比较分析.
主要成果:
- 根据目前的发展,碳峰值预计将在2033年达到 (2,051,320,000).
- 在没有重大变化的情况下,在2030年之前达到峰值的目标不太可能.
- 优化工业结构和减少能源消耗可能会导致2026年的碳峰值 (1,917,132,000).
结论:
- 黄河流域的城市面临着大幅度的减排挑战.
- 积极的优化策略对于加速实现碳峰值至关重要.
- 专注于工业结构和能源效率的政策干预对于实现气候目标至关重要.
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