减少巴西太阳能资源气候预测的不确定性
Francisco José Lopes de Lima1,2, André Rodrigues Gonçalves1, Rodrigo Santos Costa1
1Division of Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabilities, Brazilian Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, SP, 12227-010, Brazil.
Scientific reports
|October 21, 2024
概括
巴西 巴西 巴西 巴西.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 可再生能源可再生能源是可再生能源.
背景情况:
- 巴西的电网越来越依赖太阳能发电,提高能源安全,减少温室气体 (GHG) 排放.
- 太阳能资源的可用性容易受到气候变化的影响,这对电网弹性构成风险.
研究的目的:
- 评估合模型相互比较项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 模型在模拟和预测巴西各地的表面太阳辐射 (SSR) 的性能.
- 了解气候变化对巴西太阳能资源的潜在影响.
主要方法:
- 利用卫星和再分析数据进行模型评估.
- 分析了CMIP6模型对巴西SSR预测的输出.
主要成果:
- 最可靠的CMIP6模型预测,巴西许多地区的SSR将增加2%~8%.
- 巴西南部地区的SSR预计下降约3%.
结论:
- 预计的SSR变化表明,光伏发电 (PV) 发电可能会增加,但这取决于支持性政策.
- 强调气候模型预测中不确定性评估对于可靠的能源规划至关重要.
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