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现象适应不足以抵消气候变化引起的美国杂交玉米产量损失

Aaron Kusmec^1,2, Patrick S Schnable^1,3

¹Department of Agronomy, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, USA.

Global change biology

|October 22, 2024

概括

气候变化威胁到玉米产量,但作物生长模型可能高估了适应效益. 新的研究表明,仅仅是现象学变化是不够的,强调了需要改善耐热性和作物多样化以适应气候的必要性.

科学领域:

农业科学农业科学
气候科学气候科学
遗传学是一个遗传学.

背景情况:

气候变化对全球玉米产量构成重大威胁,预计气温升高将降低产量.
作物生长模型 (CGM) 表明,调整种植日期和其他现象特征可以减轻或逆转这些产量损失.
然而,这些CGM预测的准确性及其基础假设需要进行批判性审查.

研究的目的:

评估基于CGM的气候变化对玉米产量影响研究背后的假设.
评估现象适应策略在未来气候情景下减轻预计产量损失方面的有效性.
调查历史遗传变异性在玉米适应性耐热性中的作用.

主要方法:

利用来自美国农业部的历史玉米现象学数据和基于80年产量试验记录的统计产量模型.
使用一组CMIP6气候模型来预测未来的气候条件.
分析了玉米杂交品种中耐热性的历史遗传变异性.

主要成果:

观察到2005年后种植日期较晚的趋势,丝或成熟日期没有显著变化.
统计收益率预测表明,在拟议的现象适应策略下,收益率严重下降,与CGM预测形成鲜明对比.
发现,对于耐热性的历史遗传改进不足以抵消预计的变暖影响.

结论:

目前的现象适应策略本身不足以抵消气候变化导致的玉米产量减少.
来自CGM的预测可能无法完全捕捉升温对玉米产量的负面影响.
美国中西部玉米的有效气候适应需要多方面的方法,包括增强耐热性和作物多样化.

关键词:

气候适应气候适应气候变化气候变化气候变化作物现象学作物现象学遗传学遗传学遗传学是一个高温压力压力的高温压力.玉米玉米玉米是一种收益率收益率收益率收益率

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