在对比的排放情景下,新热带森林鸟类及其息地的前景
Jeffrey D Brawn1, David Luther2, Mingxin Qu3
1Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, USA.
Global change biology
|October 22, 2024
概括
气候政策对新热带地区的生物多样性产生重大影响. 与高排放场景 (SSP-8.5) 相比,缓解努力 (SSP-2.6) 保护了更多的鸟类气候避难所.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 新热带地区的生物多样性很高,对降水模式很敏感.
- 气候政策直接影响生态系统的完整性.
- 季节性干旱变化对新热带地区的生态系统构成重大威胁.
研究的目的:
- 为了模拟到2100年的季节性干旱变化,在新热带地区.
- 评估对比的气候情景对区域生物多样性的影响,使用鸟类作为指标.
- 确定潜在的气候难民,并评估不同气候政策下保护区的有效性.
主要方法:
- 利用气候建模来根据共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 预测旱季长度的变化.
- 评估了预计干旱变化对低地森林鸟类的影响.
- 量化了潜在气候避难所的范围及其与保护区的重叠.
主要成果:
- 在高排放SSP-8.5情景下,75%的低地森林面临更长的干旱季节,影响66%的鸟类.
- 预计加勒比海,南美洲上部和亚马逊地区将经历干旱的显著增加.
- 根据缓解情景 (SSP-2.6),只有10%的森林和3%的鸟类受到更长的干旱季节的影响.
- 与SSP-8.5.5相比,在SSP-2.6下,气候避难所的可用性是SSP-8.5的四倍以上.
- 在SSP-2.6.6下,受保护地区与潜在的避难所的重叠几乎是SSP-2.6.6的四倍.
结论:
- 气候政策是未来新热带地区生物多样性的关键决定因素.
- 显著的气候缓解 (SSP-2.6) 对于保护新热带地区的生物多样性和气候避难所至关重要.
- 即使没有直接森林砍伐威胁的地区也容易受到气候变化的影响,这凸显了全球政策行动的必要性.
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