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预测极端温度对中下长江平原粮食生产的影响,使用空间感知深度学习模型
Zijun Mu1, Junfei Xia2,3
1Nanjing Smardaten Technologies Co., Ltd, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
PeerJ
|October 22, 2024
概括
气候变化影响中下长江平原的粮食生产. 极端的热浪和寒浪显著影响作物产量,需要适应战略,以实现未来的粮食安全.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 谷物作物面临人类气候变化和极端温度带来的重大风险.
- 以前的研究往往忽视了极端温度对区域谷物产量的时空影响.
研究的目的:
- 解决了解气候变化对中下长江平原 (MLYP) 粮食生产的影响的差距.
- 通过2100提供气候诱导的谷物生产变化的最新预测.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种超越基准多线性谷物生产模型的新型模型.
- 分析了极端温度事件的时空分布及其对谷物产量的影响.
主要成果:
- 预计到2100年,在低 (SSP126) 和中 (SSP245) 辐射强迫场景下,谷物产量将减少100多.
- 在高辐射强迫情景 (SSP585) 下,预计谷物产量下降约270.
- 观察到冷波频率下降可能会抵消热波频率的增加,导致比以前预测的下降更小.
结论:
- 极端热浪和寒浪的频率对粮食生产的影响比降雨或劳动力指标更大.
- 升高的热浪频率与更高的输出可变性相关.
- 强调迫切需要作物特定的减缓和适应策略,以应对气候变暖中的热冷压力.
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