未来的气候变化将影响美国农业产量,生产和市场
Chengcheng Fei1, Jonas Jägermeyr2,3,4, Bruce McCarl1
1Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA.
概括
根据基于过程的模型,气候变化可能会提高美国作物产量,特别是小麦和大豆. 然而,经济模型预测损失,强调了模型选择对农业经济预测的重要性.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
- 农业学是一种农业学.
背景情况:
- 美国农业面临着关于气候变化对作物产量和经济稳定影响的重大不确定性.
- 现有研究显示出各种预测,需要全面的建模方法.
研究的目的:
- 估计气候变化对美国农业产量和21世纪经济的影响.
- 为了比较基于过程的作物模型与收益率和福利分析的计量经济学模型的结果.
主要方法:
- 利用多种气候场景和基于过程的作物模型来预测关键作物的未来产量.
- 将预计产量整合到农业部门模型中,以评估经济福利影响.
- 采用计量经济模型作为收益率预测和比较的替代方法.
主要成果:
- 基于工艺的模型预测小麦,草原和大豆的产量增加,玉米和的反应减弱.
- 与基于过程的模型相比,计量经济学模型通常显示的收益率结果不那么积极.
- 综合农业部门模型表明,使用基于过程的收益投入,总福利收益约为117亿美元/年,而使用计量经济收益投入时,福利损失超过280亿美元/年.
结论:
- 产量建模方法的选择 (基于过程而不是以计经济学) 显著影响美国农业预计的经济结果.
- 气候变化适应,经济增长,国际贸易以及洪水和害虫等特定的环境因素是未来农业福利的关键决定因素.
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