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基于LASSO-Cox回归的死性肠球炎不良结果风险模型的构建和评估
HaiJin Zhang1, RongWei Yang2, Yuan Yao1
1Department of Radiology, Jiaxing Maternity and Child Health Care Hospital, Jiaxing, Zhejiang, China.
Frontiers in pediatrics
|October 22, 2024
概括
这项研究开发了一种名谱,用于预测患有死角性肠球炎 (NEC) 的新生儿的不良结果. 该模型可以准确地早期识别高风险婴儿,帮助及时做出临床决策,并改善NEC患者的预后.
科学领域:
- 新生儿医学 新生儿医学
- 儿科手术 儿科手术
- 临床信息学 临床信息学
背景情况:
- 死性肠球炎 (NEC) 是新生儿严重的胃肠道紧急情况.
- 预测NEC的不良结果对于及时干预和改善预后至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证用于预测被诊断为NEC的新生儿不良结果的诺米克图.
- 确定与NEC中不良结果相关的关键风险因素.
主要方法:
- 对182名患有NEC的新生儿进行了回顾性分析.
- 使用 LASSO 考克斯回归的风险预测模型的开发.
- 使用培训和时间验证套件验证名录.
主要成果:
- 开发了一种包含八个特征 (例如,先天性心脏病史,抗生素暴露,血,腹部X射线得分) 的名图.
- 该模型表现出强大的预测性能,训练组的C指数为0.850,验证组的C指数为0.788.
- 在不同时间点 (8,10,12天) 观察到高预测精度 (AUC>0.79).
结论:
- 开发的LASSO-Cox nomogram有效地识别了高风险的NEC新生儿的不良结果.
- 早期预测不良结果是可行的,使得迅速的临床决策.
- 诺米图可以显著改善患者的预后和NEC的临床管理.
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