使用大人口健康数据库进行预测建模的AI/ML方法和经典回归的比较:应用到COVID-19病例预测中的应用
Lise M Bjerre1,2,3, Cayden Peixoto1, Rawan Alkurd4
1Institut du Savoir Montfort, 713, chemin Montréal, Ottawa, Ontario K1K 0T2, Canada.
Global epidemiology
|October 22, 2024
概括
人工智能和机器学习 (AI / ML) 模型,特别是梯度增强树 (GBT),与传统的物流回归相比,在COVID-19病例识别方面显示出更高的预测准确性. 整合症状数据显著提高了所有方法的模型性能.
科学领域:
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 计算流行病学计算流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 在大量人口健康数据库上,对比人工智能和机器学习 (AI/ML) 与经典统计方法的研究有限.
- 这项研究通过评估AI/ML算法与预测COVID-19病例的传统模型相比,解决了这一差距.
研究的目的:
- 将AI/ML算法的预测性能与传统的多变量逻辑回归模型进行比较.
- 用链接的卫生行政数据评估AI/ML在识别COVID-19病例中的实用性.
主要方法:
- 使用安大略省的人口健康数据库进行了回顾性队列研究.
- 使用逻辑回归 (LR),深度神经网络 (DNN),随机森林 (RF) 和梯度增强树 (GBT) 开发了预测模型.
- 用10倍交叉验证的曲线下面积 (AUC) 来比较模型性能,并结合了人口统计,社会经济和症状数据.
主要成果:
- 该队列包括351,248名太华居民进行了COVID-19检测,进行了883,879次测试 (2.6%阳性).
- 包括COVID-19症状数据在所有方法中改善了模型性能 (AUC>0.7).
- 梯度提升树 (GBT) 方法表现出最高的预测能力 (AUC = 0.796 ± 0.017),显著超过了后勤回归和其他AI/ML方法.
结论:
- 传统的多变量回归模型在预测准确度上有局限性,与在中度数据集上使用的一些AI/ML算法相比.
- 人工智能/ML梯度提升树 (GBT) 方法为COVID-19病例识别提供了卓越的预测准确性.
- 在可行的情况下,应考虑使用GBT方法,以改善卫生行政数据中的预测建模.
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