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化石化出生死亡模型是可以识别的

Kate Truman^1,2, Timothy G Vaughan^3,4, Alex Gavryushkin^1,2

¹Biological Data Science Laboratory, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand.

Systematic biology

|October 22, 2024

概括

时间依赖的出生-死亡采样模型可能无法识别. 然而,广泛使用的化石出生死亡 (FBD) 模型是可以识别的,这证明了它用于推断基因树的进化和流行病学动态的合理性.

科学领域:

进化生物学是进化的生物学.
流行病学流行病学
人类遗传学是一个学科.
计算生物学是一种计算生物学.

背景情况:

时间依赖的出生死亡采样模型对于推断基因树的进化和流行病学动态至关重要.
一些出生-死亡采样模型存在不可识别性问题,不同速率组产生相同的树分布,阻碍参数估计.
化石化出生死亡 (FBD) 模型提供了一个更现实的框架,在进化和疾病动态中考虑化石化和采样过程.

研究的目的:

为了确定时间依赖的化石出生死亡 (FBD) 模型的识别性,这是一个广泛使用的家族遗传模型类别.
评估依赖时间的FBD模型的参数是否可以从重建的家族遗传树单独推断出来.
调查一个扩展的FBD模型的识别性,其中包含了"取样后删除"的概率.

主要方法:

理论分析分支过程及其相关的概率函数.
对于时间依赖的出生-死亡和FBD模型的识别条件的数学表述和评估.
标准FBD模型与扩展的FBD模型之间的参数识别能力的比较,采样后删除.

主要成果:

该研究表明,广泛使用的依赖时间的化石出生死亡 (FBD) 模型是可以识别的.
FBD模型的可识别性验证了使用该框架的时间多样化和流行病学动态的统计推断.
一个扩展的依赖时间的FBD模型具有"取样后删除"的概率被证明是不可识别的.

结论:

时间依赖的FBD模型是可识别的,支持其用于从族系遗传数据中对进化和流行病学过程进行可靠推断的应用.
FBD模型的可识别性证明了依靠它的统计方法用于重建过去的生物动态的使用.
在未知样本后谱系行为的场景中,仅使用树数据来推断"样本后删除"概率与其他率一起仍然具有挑战性.

关键词:

出生至死亡抽样模型.灭绝的灭绝是一种灭绝.化石化石化石的化石人类遗传学遗传学种类的变化种类的变化

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