山区城市的面向山体滑坡的弹性空间时间演变模式:中国重庆的一个案例研究
Haijia Wen1, Junhao Huang1, Long Qian1
1Key Laboratory of New Technology for Construction of Cities in Mountain Area of the Ministry of Education, National Joint Engineering Research Center for Prevention and Control of Environmental GeoHazards in the TGR Area, School of Civil Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400045, China.
Journal of environmental management
|October 22, 2024
概括
这项研究开发了一个数据驱动的框架来评估山区城市的城市弹性,发现协调的发展和时空视角是管理城市化和气候变化的风险的关键.
科学领域:
- 城市规划和减少灾害风险
- 环境科学和气候变化适应
- 地理信息系统和空间分析
背景情况:
- 快速的城市化和气候变化对城市地区构成重大风险,需要增强性.
- 山地城市由于其复杂的地形和相互连接的系统,面临着独特的挑战.
- 评估和改善城市的抗灾能力对于可持续发展和灾害管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种数据驱动的方法,用于定量分析城市弹性的时空演变.
- 为了评估重庆的抵御性,一个代表性的山区城市在中国,对山体滑坡.
- 为科学开发适应性强的山区城市提供框架.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个综合性评估框架,使用33个物理环境弹性 (PER) 和社会经济弹性 (SER) 的变量.
- 综合随机森林 (RF),分析层次过程 (AHP) 和合协调度 (CCD) 模型.
- 利用了重庆的历史滑坡数据 (2010-2020年) 和统计年鉴数据.
主要成果:
- 山区城市的社会发展呈现出一点到区域的模式,城市中心的协调发展更高.
- PER模型实现了高准确度 (AUC>0.95),表明重庆的总体PER始终很高.
- 降雨大大影响PER,而GDP大大影响SER,凸显了协调区域发展的必要性.
结论:
- 时空视角和协调区域发展对于提高山区城市的城市弹性至关重要.
- 开发的框架提供了一种可靠的方法来评估抗滑坡能力和指导城市规划.
- 这项研究为建立更有弹性的山区城市环境来应对动态风险提供了蓝图.
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